Reminder: Annexation Joint Work Session Tonight at City Hall
Decatur Metro | November 17, 2008The Decatur City Commission and the Board of Education will meeting tonight in a joint 6:30p work session at city hall to discuss “annexation options”.
The meeting is only scheduled to last an hour (as are most work sessions preceding the actual commission meeting) but hopefully the discussion will provide further clarification on how the school system would absorb up to 500 additional students if the full commercial/residential annexation plan were to go forward.
In case you’re looking to get up to speed beforehand (you know…do a little homework?) the full gamut of options were detailed in this May 2008 presentation. Also, here’s the latest City Manager’s report to the City Commission, which includes a helpful Revenues vs. Expenditures chart on page 6.
Here’s something I’m still trying to wrap my head around…why don’t “city operation” expendures increase when you go from just commercial property to commercial/residential property? That larger area doesn’t need additional police, fire, garbage pickup, etc?
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A number of local experts on financial/demographic/urban planning matters have looked at the City report on the annexation and agree that the report is a inadequate at best. It is woefully unrealistic and makes several dangerous assumptions. It is a report written with a predetermined conclusion in mind. The student projection is impossibly low. Whether you have children in the schools or not, this plan is poorly thought out, and there is a more thorough analysis being circulated out there that shows that the annexation will most likely cost Decatur taxpayers more money in the end.
The City could and should go about this in a slow and measured manner. It is unnecessary to annex the whole banana all at once. Our City is in very good shape financially compared to most cities in this economy. There is no crisis – they sky is not falling like the Commission/City Manager would have you think.
BTW, tonight’s meeting and the so called “hearings” that follow are provided for entertainment value only. Be very surprised if you see anything but smiles and nods from the school board tonight. More will come on that hot tamale later.
This is a done deal – get ready for the ride. The saddest part is that the folks in the annexed areas don’t yet realize that they (and particularly their school children and businesses) are the ones who will lose out the most in the end. Hopefully, they will see the numbers and realize what the real deal is.
Lots of questions for you MrFixIt…
What makes you think that the student projection is impossibly low?
Who are these “experts”? Shockingly, experts also have motives, so I’d like to know who they are and what connections they have to this process. I know the commission’s stated motive….to lower taxes.
What is the “real deal”?
And why do you believe this is already a “done deal”? Personally, I can’t even figure out which scenario the commission supports at this point. Are you referring to a commercial/residential expansion?
450 is 5.76% of 7800. Nationwide, about 18-20% of the population is school-aged. 18-20% of 7800 is about 1482.
Rosser’s projections on kindergarten are already off by 25%. We already have more kindergartners than were projected by Rosser post-annexation. Just look at the numbers yourself.
The “real deal” is that the folks in the annexed areas are not going to get the school system they see now. Even if pigs could fly and the 450 number is correct… Winnona and Glennwood already have trailers… so where will their kids go? Will more families move in? Where will their kids go to school? Take a look at Oakhurst if you don’t believe that new families will move in and have babies. Will seniors move out? Will lower income/fixed income folks who may not be abreast of all of this be pushed out? Just look at the map and look at the numbers.
Do annexed folks really want to send their 9-year-olds to Renfroe with 1200 or eventually 1500 other 4th through 8th graders? This number is based on Rosser’s projections. What if the number is higher… what if Rosser is off by 25% (like they are now) and we are looking at more like 1500-1900 children at Renfroe? I would suggest that anyone thinking that 1500ish kids at Renfroe is feasible tour the school to see if they can envision it with that many children. Also, drive by other middle schools that house the same number of children and see how big their facilities are in comparison. Shamrock is the biggest one in our immediate area with about 1100 or so students and I believe that Henderson has about 1200 or so – Go see them!
Will the annexed children thrive in a school with 240-300 (or maybe 300-375?) other children in the same grade? Is it worth the taxes that their parents will pay to have a huge school on the scale of what you see in the suburbs? Will they be happy if Forrest Hills or Hooper is opened up instead to house their kids or will they only be happy with Winnona/Glennwood? Can the businesses in the annexed areas afford a tax hike? Will they be pushed out? How thin will Decatur PD be stretched? How many officers will be hired? How many should be hired? How will they cooperate with DeKalb PD to deal with Memorial Avenue? The real deal is that more folks in the annexation areas need to be asking some hard questions and demanding answers just like City residents are now. After all if they are going to be part of all this – they should make a fully informed decision and know that they are getting their money’s worth.
“Motives” and “connections”- hmmm…. that implies something sinister. So, because the commission wants to lower taxes by some unnamed amount they are correct in their evaluation of the situation and those who see the numbers differently have “motives” because they do not hold public office. What “motives” do you think that folks who see this whole thing differently have? Is the Commission motive free?
The numbers will come out over the next few weeks as will their authors. Sorry, but I just can’t publish it until it’s complete and it’s OK with the folks who are working so hard on it. It’s sort of like where everyone knew that the City had a report on the annexation but it wasn’t put out there until it was complete. There’s nothing secretive or mysterious about that… it’s just something that needs to be finalized and I’m not at liberty to just throw it out there. I’m sorry, perhaps I shouldn’t have brought it up. I take it back until further notice.
Metro, are you willing to even consider the possibility that your taxes will not go down? Can you consider the possibility that the city’s analysis has flaws? If it is so important to increase the commercial to residential mix in Decatur, why add so much residential? Would you like to have that question answered? Have you recently witnessed a government making a big, costly mistake because few asked questions and few considered different takes on reality? I certainly have!
Yes, I am referring to a commercial/residential expansion. I really hope I am wrong though. I’d be happy to eat crow and buy you a week of dinners if I am wrong and if the Commission goes for a more gradual and reasoned approach!
No, the world will not end if the annexation goes through. The world will not end if it doesn’t either. The only problem is that you can’t take back an annexation if you don’t like it. Given that, it makes sense to go slowly.
Mr Fixit has raised several excellent points. And it’s not like the good ol’ school board hasnt ever crammed stuff down everyone’s throats before (closing/re-aligning of the schools). I’m not saying those decisions were wrong — it just wasn’t handled right and things were decided before hand.
Metro: You do a nice job/great service in running this blog. and i appreciate it.
Unfortunately you seem too defensive about the fine city we live in. This guy raises some good points and you jump all over him.
A neighbor and I have been looking into this in great detail over the last few days and I’m with MrFixit, although I do have some hope that we can still reason with at least some of the powers that be. The people I know on the commission and school board are genuinely well-meaning, but haven’t themselves yet taken a careful look at the numbers. No matter how you slice it, the math is far from adding up.
Below is a statement I’ve worked up and tried to circulate via email. Feedback is very welcome.
This is a huge deal, and worthy of your close attention if you live in Decatur.
*****
REJECT ANNEXATION
Contrary to what is promised in the Report: the proposed annexation will LOSE REVENUE for the City of Decatur and OVERWHELM A SCHOOL SYSTEM already struggling to accommodate its current and incoming enrollments.
In one move the population of Decatur and its school system would increase by up to 43%. The proposal is to raise revenues by annexing areas that contain low to moderate value commercial properties and homes, while grossly underestimating the number of new students entering the city school system.
450 Students? Grossly Unrealistic.
1 in 6 City residents are in the School System. The Report says 1 in 20 in annexed areas. The only way the proposed annexation gains the revenue promised is if the number of students entering the school system is FAR lower per capita than in the city as presently configured. The projection for the annexed area is for 450 new students out of 7800 new residents – 5.7 % or approximately 1 in 20. In the current city population, the ration is 1 in 6. The financial projections are based wholly on 1-in-20 projection, which is grossly unrealistic. If the projection is off and the ratio begins to approach that of the city as a whole, the annexation quickly becomes a financial loser. Instead of the $1,500,000 increase projected on the Report, a 1-in-10 ratio would produce a $650,000 deficit and a 1-in-6 ratio would produce a $4,300,000 deficit.
Construction Costs Ignored. These deficit numbers take into account only the average cost per pupil and not the new construction that would be necessary to accommodate the (450? 750? 1100?) new students. And the construction would have to anticipate families moving into the annexed areas and therefore SHOULD be based on the 1-in-6 ratio of the city as a whole, as we expect the annexed areas to attract families with school-age children. That means massive and expensive construction on top of the per pupil expenses. The math is not in our favor, since the property values of the annexed areas is lower than those of the city as a whole and thus the ratio of revenue to the cost per pupil is lower than the city as a whole.
A badly flawed method of projection. How was the number 450 arrived at? The Rosser study mentioned in the report looked only at birth records, and the birth records studied were limited to 2000-06, a seven-year period. But of course school-age children from Pre-K to grade 12 covers a 14 year span. So at a minimum that number should be doubled to 900, even before we raise the questions of whether counting births accounts for all school age children, whether annexation would attract more families, and so forth. The study’s method would not include the children at the Methodist Children’s Home, which is in one of the proposed annexation areas. The study then subtracted from that artificially low number some unknown percentage to allow for private school attendance (in this low to moderate income housing).
“Commercial Only” Could Be Worse
The numbers do not add up even if we were to annex only the so-called “commercial” properties, which in fact contain a large number of people in apartments and condos. We hit a deficit of $940,000 even if the percentage of students is only 7.5 and up to $4,500,000 at 15%. Moreover, the commercial properties in the annexed areas are not high-value properties – they include the long-defunct Pep Boys, Big Lots, the strip club on E. Ponce, Title Loan dealers, and many vacant properties. If you seriously want to increase revenues, you go where there is money.
Overwhelming the School System
Schools Already Struggling to Keep Up. Add to this the fact that the city school system is already up to its neck handling the current projected student populations for the city without annexation. We have trailers at Glennwood and Winnona Park, kindergarteners that should have gone to Clairemont were sent to Oakhurst due to overcrowding. We do not yet know how we will handle the next five years as it is – a very serious challenge – without then adding 450-1100 students into the system.
Report Ignores Where Students Would Go. Where would the new students go? The Report doesn’t ask this obvious question. Would elementary schools recently closed need to be reopened? Westchester? College Heights? What would become of the ECLC at College Heights? Fifth Avenue? How could Glennwood, already using trailers accommodate a large influx of new students? The Report does not mention that the proposed annexation area already contains an elementary school – Hooper Alexander Elementary on Memorial Drive. What will happen to Hooper Alexander Elementary? (The various “brainstorming” alternatives listed in the Rosser study are based solely on the erroneous 450 number.)
Report Does Not Reflect Serious Study.
Finally, the city’s Report (dated Oct. 20) is quite sloppily put together. Among other flaws, we find:
§ It refers to annexation areas that are not on the included map (though they are on the separate pdf map).
§ The figures for revenues and expenses on the table do not match the numbers in the written text.
§ The figures do not take into account school construction costs.
§ It does not raise the question of which schools will be reopened or reconfigured.
§ It does not mention the annexation of Hooper Alexander Elementary or what will become of it.
§ It does not mention the annexation of the Methodist Children’s Home, which we assume would pay no taxes and add an unknown number of students (not reflected in a study of birth records) into the system.
§ It does not raise of the question of demographic changes to the annexed areas, especially the influx of young families attracted to the school system.
In short, the Report does not reflect a careful study that considers some very obvious questions. The financial projections are so dubious, and the Report so hastily produced, that City residents should be made very suspicious of what is really behind this proposal. The Report states that “the City Commission would need to decide at its November 17 meeting how to proceed.” Negotiations with DeKalb County representatives and members of the General Assembly are apparently already at an advanced stage. How did such a half-baked idea with such enormous impact on our city get such a huge head of steam?
makresident…I didn’t realize I was jumping all over him. I’ll try to restrain my hair-trigger temper going forward. I was just looking for more a few more specifics to his argument. He more than provided them in his follow up.
Oh, and the annexation is the city commission’s idea, not the school board’s.
Sorry if I’m too defensive of the city for your taste. But I’ve been doing this for over a year now, and I’ve found that cutting the city a little slack (instead of posting biting critiques about things I don’t fully understand) usually helps prevent me from giving out all kinds of misinformation. So when someone gives a critique with lots of emotion and few details, I want to hear more.
Funny thing is…I think MrFixIt and I are on the same page here…we both are leaning towards a “commercial only” annexation. I just disagree that the city has already made up their minds about a residential/commercial annexation. Where is the proof of that? If someone has it, please bring it forward.
I wonder why some folks think that school boards, superintendents, mayors, and city officials have hidden agendas, and that they are rushing to do something that will be a detriment to our community? These folks are either elected or hired, and most of them live here, and have a vested interest in a thriving Decatur, and are simply doing all they can to make it even better. While certainly, they are going to alienate some folks who don’t like change, or maybe even the changes made, but that’s the way it is sometimes with progress. It certainly is ok to question and ask for data, but many folks on these blogs in my opinion actually think they could do a better job. If you have a doctorate in education, or a masters in city planning, then perhaps you can, but if you are like me, and you don’t, then let’s allow these hard working folks the opportunity to do the jobs they were hired/elected to do and support them. If they are doing a bad job, then let’s have them replaced. With a thriving Decatur community where home values are actually rising during this recession, and certain businesses doing ok, and a school system that ranks near the top, I think they certainly are doing an EXCELLENT job! Yes, we can question them, and give ideas by going to the community meetings, but sitting on the sidelines and coaching from afar is ridiculous!
P.S. Please note that “commercial only” is a misnomer. The areas labeled as such contain a large number of residences, including apartment and condos. All areas under consideration are mixed commercial residential. Moreover, drive around these areas for yourself and take a look at these commercial properties that are supposed to boost our revenues. The long-defunct Pep Boys, Big Lots, the strip club, a great many distressed and vacant properties. We’ve run numbers on this option and it is a financial loser.
May I remind everyone that:
a) anyone may speak at public hearing on this matter.
b) the people making the decisions are our elected officials, whom we vote for and work for us.
c) in regards to (b), the turnout at local elections is 1/4 to 1/3 that for elections like we just had, and issues like this illustrate the fact that local elections are at least as, if not more important, than national or state ones.
So, you should be attending public hearings, in addition to venting here AND voting in local elections, which if you didn’t, you have much less credibility in your criticism, IMHO.
Annexation was not a topic in last November’s (2007) City Commission elections. No one spoke of it. Yet, somehow, it was announced a month after the election, in December, that the City Commission was considering annexation. Does anyone think that it’s possible that wheels were turning on this issue in November 2007 and well before?
Decatur residents are not getting a chance to vote on this issue. They aren’t even getting a chance to vote on a Commissioner with this issue being raised as part of the election debate.
And Metro… I have no problem with you asking me questions and putting me to task. I hope I did a passable job of answering them. I hope you also put the City to task too.
The problem and the solution to this whole thing are in the state procedure. It needs to be fixed at the state level. Appropriate and complete studies need to be required and the people living in the area that is doing the annexing needs to be part of the vote. The City isn’t doing anything that the state does not allow them to do.
I’m not afraid of change – I voted for Obama didn’t I! I just like “change I can believe in” and I can’t believe in the annexation with the information I have now. I sure would love someone to change my mind…. it hasn’t happened yet. The more I hear and the more figures I see.. the darker it gets. Perhaps tonight the sun will rise…
I realize the misnomer Judd. I guess we should call it “mostly commercial”. The stated point of the “commercial only” annexation is to up the % of commercial because it uses fewer city services, thus providing less tax burden on residential. And the city sees not just what is there currently, but its future potential.
Also, the Rosser report you cite gives options to where the new students could potentially “go”…doesn’t it?
Ultimately I understand everyone’s concerns…especially regarding the students. (I wish the city would address that 450 number ASAP)
But does anyone else have any other ideas to lower taxes? Or are we cool with them continuing to increase?
MrFixIt…you can search “annexation” in the sidebar and judge for yourself how well I’ve taken the city to task over annexation in the past 11 months. Also I believe the City Manager’s report stated that a vote of those in the annexation area is required if its more than 50% residential, no?
The Rosser report does give six or seven options, yes, but a) they are based on the erroneous 450 new student figure, which is based on birth records from only a seven-year span; and b) the question of how to handle such a massive influx of new students was not raised at all in the City’s official report to the pubic on annexation. And by the way, Rosser is an architecture/design firm that has done a lot of recent work with CSD, including the recent work on DHS. I haven’t yet found out if they were involved in the elementary construction over the last few years, but in any case — and I do not mean this as an accusation, but merely as standard public policy transparency — hiring Rosser, who currently seems to have the contract with CSD — to do the demographic analysis sets up a very clear conflict of interest.
Conflict of interest? Why would the city want skewed data regarding annexation? What’s the benefit to the commission to push through annexation and then have it fail?
People keep seeming to suggest that the city has some sort of ulterior motive. What is it? DeKalb County domination?
It’s a conflict of interest for Rosser, not the city. It’s just a mistake for the city to use Rosser for this study — as their results have shown, whether by ineptitude or design. As I say, I know several people on the commission and school board and trust their motives. I think that they have been too trusting that “experts” have looked at the numbers in detail and accept the figures they’re given. But the defects with the numbers are actually very easy to spot, once you start examining. Honestly, I don’t know what’s going on. I’m puzzled. I’ll be at the meeting this evening. I’m told by a commissioner that no decision will be made tonight (despite the fact that the Report says there “needs to be”), so I’m hopeful. This is huge. It hasn’t been examined carefully by the decision makers (yet). And I am amazed how few Decatur citizens have tuned in. We’re talking about an appoximately 50% increase in the population in one move. Possibly that much into the schools.
To be clear, that 50% is because the 7800 figure in the Report is from the Rosser study of Version 1 of the annexation map. Version 4 includes a huge area from Midway to Memorial, so the population increase and numbers in the schools will be higher than what the Report is using. (Why doesn’t the Report note this? So many question like that about the Report.)
Judd, the report does say Nov. 17th, but it was later confirmed by the city that the commission told the city manager that they needed more time….so the schedule was revised and the decision was pushed back a month. You’ll find it here.
I hope we all get some answers tonight. Please feel free to follow up with your observations in the morning.
Hmm,,, let me see…now the people that build schools and such get to write the report on how annexation will impact the community…and they under play it.
Then when you have more people to take care of who’s right there with a plan for the new schools you’ll need?
Why Rosser of course!
Wish my clients would do that. But then I don’t work much for government.
Oh and what happened to the the 315 report? I thought it was going to be out in 2 weeks and it’s been a month.
I’m really getting a bad feeling about this.
Hey but Obama won so everythings going to be alright!
The school system will not even remotely resemble its current state if this annexation goes through. And when the school system is not there (in terms of being a great system), the housing prices will certainly fall. This city will completely change within 1-2 years.
CSD Mom, we are already prepping the house in case we decide to move. We figure if things go south – we are ready. If not… well, the house looks a lot better. We will have a kid in high school when all of this hits.. so we don’t have time to play around while everyone figures out how to teach several hundred kids they have never met before.
Few will pay a half million+ for a house and $10,000 per year in property taxes to attend an overcrowded, overwhelmed and, as a result, poorly performing school system. We already nearly fail or actually fail AYP at a couple of schools each year. This will take us over the top and send us down the NCLB road to Hades.
The thing that was most disconcerting was that Ms. Merriss didn’t even have figures on the revenue/costs/benefits of each segment and… get this… didn’t even know how much the annexation increases the percentage of commercial to residential. Just didn’t know! Apparently, her guesstimate (kinda like the latest number of student “guesstimate”) is that it increases the percentage of commercial from about 14% to 16%. I’m not sure if that figure is with or without the residential south of College. I don’t think she made that distinction.
I’m really concerned that this whole thing is being done in a very footloose and fancy free manner. I’d be disappointed if the Commission was willing to move forward with the shoddy reports and estimates that they have been burdened with.
Bill Floyd did say that Decatur would be fine with or without the annexation. That was about the first thing out of his mouth at the beginning of the work session. The tax savings looked like they would be about $700ish for an owner of a $350K house, assuming that the reality of the annexation blends perfectly with the projections. I still don’t get why we are going into this uncharted territory (it could be charted but no ones seems to want to bother) for a 2% increase in commercial.
I wonder if anyone has ever considered the possibility that perhaps the best move for CSD in all of this is to just merge with the county system. I know that this sounds radical and I know DeKalb County Schools has its issues. However, CSD has been in a constant state of alarm since we move here a decade ago. They are constantly in dire straits… constantly on the edge of a cliff and about to drop into the great abyss. There have also been constant changes and constant instability. I know I’ll get flamed for this… but it’s not a bad mental exercise to think it through. It would be interesting to ponder – even as just an academic question.
I guess you haven’t heard that the superintendants goal is to have CSD in the top 10% of school systems nationally.
I asked her how much she thought that might cost but she never got back to me.
Enough about CSD.
So taxes are going up if City of Decatur doesn’t annex? Well, blow me down!
* 50% vs 40% (elsewhere) assessment rate
* $25 million in brand spanking new bond revenue
* housing prices at historic highs resulting in commensurate valuations.
Would one NOT conclude that this bodes well for City revenue stream?
So, we are raising taxes, eh????
What’s wrong with this picture???
I intend to find out. I hope there are others out there who are just as concerned.
I’m very concerned. I want to help. Just let me know what to do.
CSD Mom
I hope you’ll attend the Dec 1 public hearing on annexation and speak about your concerns.
Annexation is an outgrowth of the problem – projected insufficient tax revenue. So far, the Annexation Report says it’s either do nothing and raise taxes, or annex and reap the rewards. The rewards are posted in a chart posted later in the report.
I question the numbers used in the chart. For example, how can commercial expenses be the same as commercial/residential expenses?
Please read the annexation report. It is revealing and may provide you with questions that can be answered at the hearing.
I am not addressing the problems with annexation perceived by CSD. Others are all over that. I am concerned that the city is not giving due consideration at this time to reducing services OTHER than the school system.
Did you know that we have an ACTIVE LIVING department within the City? I believe there are seven employees. It would be interesting to know what that is all about… what it costs, what are the benefits, is it a good value for the money spent, etc?
taxus, it’s really very easy to check up on the Active Living folks – they have a blog – http://decaturactiveliving.blogspot.com/. Apparently you don’t read the Decatur Focus either – it has a semi-annual catalog of their activities. As you have in many other places, you’re firing off without any research.