The Decatur School Board has put a special work session on its calendar for next Monday, February 23rd at 6:30p to discuss the $82 million GO Bond the school system has asked the City Commission to put before voters in November.

AJC’s Bill Banks reports…

From a letter from Superintendent Phyllis Edwards posted on CSD’s website…

Each year, we have experienced change and challenge.  Most recently, in the last 7 years or so, the enrollment has continued to grow taking us from approximately 2300 students when I arrived to over 4000 today. Currently, our projections vs. our actual enrollment indicate that we have met 97% of our expected growth for the upcoming school year.  I have no doubt that we will meet or exceed the projection.  If you would like to see the various enrollment reports done over the last year, please go to this link.  In response to the climbing enrollment, Oakhurst Elementary has been expanded.  Oakhurst will be completed to house students by the first day of school.  The 4/5 Academy is also under construction to add additional classrooms and a multi-purpose area that can be used for an additional cafeteria space if needed.

This year, I will also work during the first part of the year to create an attendance zone for students to attend Westchester Elementary in the 2014-2015 school year.  If the Board agrees, I will also seek a Principal to be named to lead the school.  This process will include School Leadership Team members and some staff from some of the existing K-3 schools.  A solid practice and one that I have employed in the past, includes naming the Principal during the spring so that he or she may select staff and get to know parents.  In order to ensure that existing students, especially going into third grade for the 2014-2015 school year, remain at their current school, I plan to open Westchester for Kindergarten and First graders first.   The staff and I will involve SLT members and other parents who are interested in the various processes necessary.

On the heels of a post on Atlanta Magazine (thanks DrB!) about CSD suspending admission of tuition students (this was mentioned at the LAST school meeting, but I blanked in posting it), there’s this mention at the end of Superintendent Edwards’ overview for March School Board meeting tomorrow…

Enrollment projections for next year were set at 4036 (K-12). Kindergarten projections : 371.

At this time, we have 112 new Kindergarten students (last year 105). We have 142 new students overall with an enrollment of 10 new students at the 9th grade alone. With the calculation of the PreK students moving up – we are already close to meeting the projection for Kindergarten. We will keep you informed as the spring goes on.

And as the Superintendent said in the Atlanta Magazine piece…

We haven’t even kicked into [the main registration period of] late spring or summer,

Student enrollment at City Schools of Decatur rose by 12% since last year.  A great and/or troubling thing, depending on who you’re talking to.

But regardless, it should be noted that 12% is exactly the overall level of growth estimated by the Enrollment Committee’s “aggressive” enrollment scenario released earlier this year, which projected a total of 3,630 students this school year.

The actual number as of opening day?  3,627.  Pretty good.

Of course, there was bound to be a bit of over/under by grade…

…but overall that’s an impressive feat.  Keep it up enrollment committee!

CBS Atlanta 46

Last week, CBSAtlanta ran a piece on City Schools of Decatur’s growing enrollment.  And Patch reports that as of today, 3,584 students are enrolled for the coming school year.  Now breakdown by year has been given yet, but that total number of students is only 46 below the “aggressive” projection provided by the enrollment committee earlier this year.

In the CBSAtlanta video, Dr. Edwards says that she’ll soon be speaking with the city to see what can be done to accommodate enrollment in the coming years.
 

Attached to the Superintendent’s note to the Decatur School Board for next week’s meeting is an enrollment update for the coming school year.  Enrollment opened up in February and continues throughout the summer.

The enrollment committee, made up of CSD staff and residents, recommended earlier this year that the Board use a “one-year cohort ratio” to determine enrollment for coming years.  If I recall correctly, this was because enrollment had been growing so rapidly in the last year or so that a three or five year average was thought to likely underestimate next year’s enrollment.

As noted in the attachment, “The aggressive one-­‐year cohort ratio anticipated that up to 384 new students may enroll for the 2012-­‐2013 school year. At the time of this writing, 250 students have enrolled.”  Among the individual grades, Kindergarten, 1st and 12th grade have already met or surpassed their projections.

With all this in mind, I followed up with Asst. Superintendent Thomas Van Soelen to get the administration’s take on these enrollment levels to-date.  Here’s his thoughtful reply in full…

Dr. Edwards commissioned an Enrollment Committee Fall 2011 (parents and staff) to engage in learning around the following two questions:

1. How might we accurately predict the enrollment trends for the future?
2. How might our buildings best be used to plan for that uncertain future?

The committee worked intensely for several months and offered a presentation and report to the Board 011012:

• enrollment committee presentation
• enrollment committee report

Recommendations begin on page 13 and include several actions that are relevant to some of the ideas that emerged in a previous post about the central office:

1. Surveying the community for data regarding birth-age four children
2. enrollment calculations

We used a one-year cohort ratio analysis to project 12-13 enrollment. Prior to the 12-13 school year, either two-year or three-year cohort ratios were used (see the report for the math about how these ratios work.) The committee noted that with the burgeoning enrollment of birth-age five children, a more aggressive formula was warranted. The Board has been considering 12-13 enrollment reports at each Board meeting. Here is a link to the most recent report.

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Among the Decatur School Board’s agenda items for the coming week is a motion to approve advertising “for project management services for Renfroe Middle School infrastructure update, Fifth Avenue Academy Building Project, and Decatur Career Academy renovation/addition.”

This search is of particular note because it marks the end of Rosser International’s contract with CSD in May.  Rosser has worked on many CSD construction projects in the last couple years, including the completion of the new Decatur High gymnasium and auditorium and the renovation of the high school’s science labs.  They’ve also done some sketches of the new 5th Avenue Academy.

But many Decatur residents, myself included, were first introduced to Rosser in 2008, when the city was collecting information on whether to pursue a wide-spread annexation of surrounding unincorporated, residential and commercial property.

In a dialogue that stretched over MANY months, it was ultimately proven by residents Pat Herold and Judd Owen that there were serious discrepancies in Rosser’s student enrollment projections, which adversely affected revenue estimates.  This finding, combined with broader worries about tax revenue, was followed closely by a School Board vote against annexation (non-binding), and a tabling of the issue by Decatur’s City Commission.  The item is still tabled as far as I know.

Who will be CSD’s next project management team?  Who knows.  But one thing is for sure; between the School Board and city residents, they’ll certainly have their work cut out for them.