As Atlanta Goes…
Decatur Metro | February 12, 2009 | 3:53 pmAs we’ve reiterated many times when speculating the future value of our city’s real estate, Decatur’s economic future is indelibly linked to that of its bigger, younger sister (see Marthasville) to the west. Though many, many thanks must be given to Decatur officials, staff and residents, who had the foresight to implement smart growth concepts well before they were en vogue, even they would probably admit that it also had a lot to do with good timing. While Decatur implemented a new strategy that valued its downtown instead of destroying it, the city of Atlanta came into its hey-day.
But what now? How will our big sis fare in this economic downtown?
These questions were top-of-mind as I devoured The Atlantic’s March cover story “How the Crash Will Reshape America“, written by American Urban Studies theorist Richard Florida. Florida is big on the “creative class”, focusing on how concentrations of well-educated, creative folks (aka “talant-clusters”) drive city economies. Unlike Friedman’s world is flat-theory, Florida, like many other urban theorists, believe that the easy accessibility of info of the 21st century is not be a death-knell to cities. Instead, these mega-regions continue to remain vitality important in helping the U.S. compete with the rest of the world.
In examining our cities’ ability to weather this deep recession, Florida predicts big trouble for economies with a local economies that are heavy in the financials or industrials. While giving a pass to NYC on financials because it is the center of the world economy, Florida writes the obit for dirty industry Detriot and real-estate dependent Las Vegas and Pheonix.
But when it comes to Atlanta, Florida only makes a passing mention when rattling off mega-regions: I believe he calls it “Char-lanta.” And while Charlotte gets a later mention for being a thriving research banking capital, Atlanta receives no other mention; pro or con.
So is that a good thing or a bad thing?
Is Atlanta’s economy too diverse for Florida to pass a blanket judgment? Is it now well-positioned moving into the recession, with an economy based on more than just Coke and transportation? Can we play off of Charlotte’s success? Perhaps.
But there are a couple things that Florida specifically highlights as negatives for cities that have always really bothered me about Atlanta. First is the housing bubble (which Florida doesn’t pin on Bush or Clinton but Henry Ford’s mass production, mass consumption = national prosperity model). While Atlanta’s housing prices haven’t dropped at the rate seen in Florida, Vegas or California, our foreclosure rate is downright frightening.
My other concern is widely shared and certainly not understated by rail-hugging liberals: transportation. I don’t need to tell anyone that Atlanta has been slow to adopt more efficient transportation methods that promote greater density and shorter commutes. The city has plenty of concepts. Progressives have been spinning their wheels for years now, stating and restating plans for the Beltline and “the Brain Train”. But when the rubber hits the road, we only ever get reluctant help from the state. And as Florida argues, traffic congestion is more than just a nuisance. In the global fight for city dominance and attracting a creative class, poor transportation can be a killer.
In an era when all preconceived notions are thrown out the window, predictions become even more unreliable. But there are quite a few things that give me pause, when considering what will become of my adopted city. Will Atlanta come out of this recession ready to lead in the new economy (whatever it may look like or will it find itself mired in debt and gridlock, thanks to a variety of self-inflicted wounds?
P.S. Make sure to check out this great interactive map that shows the “evolving economic landscape” of American cities, including # of patents, income and population
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If it were not for the airport in Atlanta, Charlotte would possibly overtake us within a decade or two, thanks to transportation eff uppery.
“Charlotte gets a later mention for being a thriving research capital…” Research of what? How to read “Tide” better on car that is going 190 mph around a circle. Atlanta has many faults that may make it the Detroit of this half millennium. But with the CDC, Emory, Tech, GSU, etc. – research (especially as compared to Charlotte) is not one of them.
The lack of a housing bubble in Atlanta is specious. Atlanta’s uptick in values was mitigated by building lots of supply to meet demand. Hence, prices were not driven up exponentially. But with the demand decimated, the ride down will be slow but as pronounce as the boom markets.
I should have said banking capital…(Wachovia, Bank of America).
I was thinking about the Research Triangle when I wrote that sentence…
You may want to mark-through “thriving” too. And uh, “banking and “capital” are looking a little anachronistic. Maybe he should have said NASCAR capital.
I guess the hope is that we’re not overly dependent upon any one industry. Certainly there’s good bit of security in having companies like Coke, UPS and Home Depot here, which are all very well-managed, relatively un-leveraged and stable. And sure, housing prices will fall here, but not the huge declines we’re seeing in other areas, so that should help some too.
Atlanta is fortunate to have several Fortune 500 companies. But those stable companies tend to produce few new jobs, which is a main driver in housing demand.
Yeah, I see your point Atlalotte….I bet the article was written before all of BOA’s troubles came out in the press. Here’s the paragraph about Charlotte specifically…
“In recent years, Charlotte’s leaders have made some smart decisions about how to attract businesses and professionals, enabling the city to grow into the nation’s second-largest traditional banking center; in the lottery of business failure and consolidation, it was well positioned to win. But it was also lucky, and last fall, it escaped losing, big-time, by no more than a hair’s breadth. Overall, the roster of places that benefit from the failure of their champions’ rivals will probably be pretty short, and the names on the roster somewhat unpredictable. Especially among cities built around declining industries, more places will be weakened than strengthened; as with all lotteries, most players will lose.”
But beyond Charlotte, I would think that NC’s Research Triangle would be considered part of our own mega-region…which would be a good thing.
Thanks for the link to The Atlanttic article DM. Absolutely fascinating reading.
Atlanta didn’t warrant much of a mention in that article, but I think that’s OK. My hunch, already stated by others before me, is that the diversification of industry here is wide enough that we simply don’t fit on either end of the spectrum (ie Detroit vs. Austin).
DM, Thanks for the clarification. Please pardon any ill-tempered terseness that could have been read-in to my post.
Love your blog.
There was a series in the Charlotte Observer by Neal Peirce a few months back about Charlotte’s future as a megaregion leader. Basically, Charlotte is using Atlanta as a “worst practices” model and learning from our mistakes. Maybe in the way Atlanta eclipsed Birmingham when we got the airport, Charlotte will outdo Atlanta in the future when they have better transit.