Only time will tell whether my initial, casual observation that it was a good sign for transportation sales tax advocates that the AJC had to go all the way to Fayette County to find some intense opposition to Atlanta’s pending Transportation Sales Tax initiative.

But this new AJC poll would support the claim that I am clairvoyant.  Here’s a selection of the AJC/WSB’s latest poll findings broken up into bullets by me…

• Overall, the poll shows 51 percent of metro voters would vote for the referendum if it were held today. An additional 13 percent were undecided.
• In Cobb and Gwinnett counties alone, at least 48 percent were in support, with an additional 10 percent undecided.
• Overwhelmingly, 91 percent of voters said it was important to address the region’s transportation problems to improve its quality of life and economic future.
• Additionally, 67 percent said the region’s traffic congestion is deteriorating their quality of life.
• And 82 percent said it was important to do more to encourage everyone to commute to work by bus or train.

Sort of interesting that 82% of respondents want more done to encourage transit, but only 51% would vote for the referendum.  I’m not suggesting there aren’t valid reasons to support transit but not the tax, but, let’s be honest, you’ve gotta be a pretty well-educated transit junkie to make that argument.  So what’s that 31point gap all about?  Folks who want people other than themselves encouraged to take transit, but just verbally at no cost to tax payers?

And in case you’re wondering about the accuracy or details of the poll, it included 625 registered metro voters and has a 4% margin of error.

WIth a cool $700 million allocated to the Clifton Corridor line from LaVista to N. Decatur/Clairmont (or Avondale Station) in the proposed Transportation tax project list, the future is brighter than ever for this transit line!  (admittedly it wasn’t all that bright to begin with…)

Now, that big price-tag and/or the prospect rail to Emory may have gotten your attention, but you may be thinking, “You know, I care about “transit” and I want people to know what I think because, gosh darn it, people like me!  But dinner’s not going to cook itself/I can’t just skip out of work!/ I can’t leave my kids at home alone!  What do I do?”

Well, here’s the answer for you overworked, stressed out, likable folks.

The Clifton Corridor Transit Initiative has posted a narrated presentation on its website that brings you up to speed faster than a high-speed rail project can burn through a billion dollars.  (Sorry, “faster than high-speed rail!” sounded too corny, even for me.)  What are the differences between “heavy rail”, “light rail” and “bus rapid transit”?  It’s all in there!

This is the second of two presentations that CCTI has produced for the interwebs, however its the first time they’ve also included an online survey at the end of the presentation!  So now you can be informed AND let the world (or at least the three project managers listed at the end of the presentation) know what you think about this whole transit from Lindbergh to Emory/Decatur thingy.

Go and survey responsibly!

No real surprise here.  But still it’s a huge hurdle for the Transportation Roundtable, who’s selecting the list of projects that will go before voters next fall. From the AJC…

DeKalb County politicians, activists and residents have united to fight a proposed penny sales tax for regional transportation plans unless the final project list gets trains running in south DeKalb.

So far, the 5.4-mile rail line to link the Indian Creek MARTA station to Wesley Chapel Road, known as the I-20 project, isn’t a transit priority for the roundtable executive committee that is recommending projects.

DeKalb leaders held a news conference before the committee’s meeting Tuesday to urge the I-20 project be added — or else.

Everybody wants a project to call their own, but there’s only $6.1 billion to go around.  Is there a happy medium here or is an all-inclusive list an impossibility?

Ken Edelstein’s Green Building Chronicle has provided some of the best, in-depth coverage of the Atlanta transportation sales tax process to-date.

Just two days ago, Edelstein did a rather extensive analysis that showed that even though transit requests made up over 65% of the original project requests from local governments, all three proposed scenarios from the Atlanta Regional Commission – even the transit-heavy one – gave transit less than 50% of the total $6.1 billion available funding.  And a bit closer to home, none of the proposed scenarios funded the $1 billion+ Clifton Corridor MARTA line with more than $50 million.

However, today there are signs that the roundtable wants to dedicate more money – at least 50% – to transit, and big transit projects at that.  Ken reports that these were the seven transit projects that were “approved” – though approval apparently means nothing – at today’s roundtable…

• • $825 million for a rail line from Midtown to the Cumberland area that eventually would be extended to Town Center Mall,
• • $700 million for a Clifton Corridor rail line, connecting the Lindbergh MARTA station to Emory University,
• • $600 million for to go toward rail lines proposed by the Atlanta Beltline,
• • $500 million to keep MARTA in a “State of Good Repair,”
• • $185 million to replace the state’s share of operating funds for Georgia Regional Transit Authority bus service,
• • $100 million to restore Clayton County’s recently shuttered bus service, and
• • $100 million to plan and begin implementation of light rail northeast up I-85

According to Edelstein, one definite hurdle with this allocation brought up by GDOT’s Todd Long at the meeting is that none of these projects are fully funded at these levels, so it’s unclear where they would make up the difference in order to be constructed.  However, the fact that large transit projects are back on the table, with the Clifton Corridor receiving the second largest chunk of funding, will certainly be a positive sign for transit advocates dismayed at the backseat that transit had taken in the ARC’s recommendations.

As the chief Atlanta watchdog of the transit-pocalypse noted yesterday, the latest version of the Atlanta transportation projects list submitted by Atlanta Regional Commission staffers to the transportation roundtable of excellence (which includes Decatur Mayor Bill Floyd), includes many a cut to proposed transit projects around Atlanta.  So many in fact, road projects now account for a larger % of funds than transit projects.  Here’s an ARC summary of how the monies would be divided up:

• 6 aviation projects costing $28 million
• 15 bike/pedestrian projects costing $138 million
• 165 road projects costing $6.6 billion ($5.6 billion new capacity, $1 billion preservation)
• 31 transit projects costing $5.5 billion ($4.3 billion expansion, $1.1 billion maintenance and modernization, $0.1 billion other related infrastructure)

Al points out that the only project still on the list submitted by Decatur are the bike/pedestrian and safety improvement project for the Clifton Corridor (TIA-DK-007) at a cost of $10 million.  He also points out that the ARC document references how the project relates to another still on the list: the MARTA extension from Lindbergh to Emory/CDC.

Steve points to an article in the Augusta Chronicle, which gives the first indications that the state of Georgia may do what was suggested by a conservative rail politico a couple weeks back: move the transportation sales tax vote from July to November.

Todd Long, the planning director for the Georgia Department of Transportation, said the state is weighing the options of moving the transportation referendum, originally scheduled for the July 2012 general primary, to the November 2012 general election.

Turnout for the general election will be much higher, potentially allowing the sales tax vote to get “lost in the shuffle” but also greatly increasing any marketing costs associated with the tax, which cannot be paid using public money, he said.

…What’s on the list likely will sway voters in an area where a Georgia Municipal Association study last week showed that only 12.9 percent of officials polled believed the tax referendum would pass today.

Speaking of which…not much good news for the transportation tax in this poll.

From the AJC this morning…

Some of the highest-profile projects proposed for a transportation sales tax may not be capable of completion by the time the tax ends, weakening their chances for inclusion in the referendum. While the projects are not disqualified, if they cannot be finished before the tax ends they will be less attractive to voters.

Local advocates for major transit lines, which they hope could be rail, into Cobb County, across the top end of I-285 and into Gwinnett County said state analysts in preliminary discussions had told them those lines likely could not be complete and running by the end of the tax’s 10-year period. The project advocates emphasized that the state had not finalized its report and did not draw absolute conclusions. The report is scheduled to be out Thursday.

If Cobb and Gwinnett can’t get rail on the transportation list, that’s a big negative for everyone in this sprawly region.  Light rail projects are obviously quite expensive and if Fulton or DeKalb get any and Gwinnett and Cobb get zilch, we’re going to be widening a lot of roads up north to make the tax benefits appear even-steven.   Anyone need a bigger cul-de-sac!?

Hmm…now who could I POSSIBLY ask about all of this…