Comments on: Decatur Ranked 11th In Metro Home Sales Growth in 2008

By: Joshua Keen

Joshua Keen — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 21:26:24 +0000

I would have to agree with Brad here. And to be assessing the real estate market today using 2008 data in July of 2009 is a bit deceiving. One need only look at the stock market (and all the predictions of what was to come) in July 2008 to see the flaw in that.

The Case Shiller index is certainly more accurate view of the current market and I would argue that looking at real-time data is the best way to go:

http://www.realsourcebrokers.com/market-trends-30030.php

As you can see from the “market action index” report above – the housing market here in Decatur didn’t see any real significant shifts until October of 2008. This shift in buying demand (and home values) was in direct correlation to collapse of the financial market that same month.

Further to the point, the jobless rate is likely to continue to slide (most experts predict a 10%+ level by year’s end) and people need jobs to buy homes – at any price. With the market dominated by “distressed” sales it may take a while for the “retail” market to catch up to today’s prices. Let’s look at this report again when they release 2009 data in the mid 2010

By: Brad Steel

Brad Steel — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 19:47:44 +0000

I’m skeptical of the value of the AJC zip code sales trends. The trends seems to wildly defy common sentiment and other information. I have trouble believing that there is magic zip code in Gwinnett County with a 53% increase in value – especially when the Case-Shiller index ( a housing geek’s value index) shows a big drop in Atlanta area values.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/12/04/business/economy/HOUSING_PRICES_GRAPHIC.html

I would expect that there are significant variations in the data samples that with further inspection would show that a lot of the zip code trends are misleading or statistically meaningless for analyzing home value trends. Possibly, zip code borders and their frequent inconsistencies with actual neighborhood or city boundaries may contribute to the wild variations.

But you probably get what you pay for if you look to the AJC for reliable value data.

By: woodenspoon

woodenspoon — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 17:52:51 +0000

Median price is an ok measure but be warned that this number is likely highly infuenced by foreclosure activity. If the sales volume of foreclosures decreases for whatever reason, this will increase the median value. However, the actual value of someone’s home will not necessarily have increased (it may actually be decreasing) because of this fact.

For example, if out of every 100 houses sold, assume 40 of them are foreclosures (probably close to accurate) in 2008. If in 2009, there are only 30 sold (maybe due to the actions of the govt), the median price is likely to jump but it says nothing about the actual value of someone’s home.