Will $4 Gas Soon Be the New Norm?
Decatur Metro | January 2, 2011Remember how much of a fuss we made about $3/gallon gasoline? Man were we irritated.
Well, guess what. Gas is $3 again. Where’s the panic!? Where are the angry op-eds? The Twitter #gasgriping? The Facebook status updates of gas price-induced fury?
Ya know, human adaptation sure makes us look like a bunch of over-reactionary liars sometimes.
But luckily, I see a return of media (social or non-social) angst just over the horizon. The AP kicked off the New Year announcing that gas price experts are predicting the price of gasoline will get up in the $4/gallon range in up to 15 states by Memorial Day, thanks to a recovering U.S. economy and China’s increasing need for oil. (No need to worry here in Georgia in the short-term. That arbitrary new .00-mark will only be reached in states with the most aggressive gas taxes.)
And while you could argue that ho-hum $3/gallon fuel HAS had an impact on the nation’s psyche – propelling the population back to the city and influencing the % of teens with driver’s licenses – these effects surely didn’t live up to all the hype.
In that regard, will $4 gas prove to be more of the same? Promises and predictions of drastic changes to our daily lives followed in short-order by slight, actual changes by the population-at-large. Or will it amount to something else? Will majorities once adverse to public transit suddenly stick a MARTA Breeze Card in their purse or wallet? Will ‘burban families start ponying up for electric vehicles? Will “stay-cations” become so common that we’ll never have to hear or read that ridiculous word again?
I don’t have the answer, but if I were a betting man I’d probably putting my money on the former.
Once again I am glad I work and shop close to home.
Unfortunately, MARTA’s schedule has become less useful just as we need it more. So probably we’ll have to adapt by buying a hybrid next time we purchase a car (once every 12 years so don’t hold your breath) and staycationing if plane fares skyrocket.
I think it will take $5 per gallon gas before there is both large-scale reduction in driving (with alternative transit picking up the slack) and a huge change in housing that sees people move away from car-dependent sprawl.
$4 will probably result in griping for a few months but no significant change in driving habits People will just make adjustments to other spending in order to afford the higher gas price.
The main reason it will be hard to see any change in car-dependency is that the sprawling development that makes up most of our built environment — and the road infrastructure that serves it — is built on the model of personal cars. It is ill-suited for pretty much any other form of transport.
There are no experts on the price of gasoline. I submit that prices are impossible to predict. Heck, in 2008 natural gas was at 14 or so. Since then it’s hovered around $4 pretty consistently. The futures market bid crude up to $145/barrel in 2008. Months later, it was back in the $40s. Just before I checked into DM and read this post, I was on Yahoo finance, where one of the lead stories was that oil production from the Dakotas is expected to increase substantially — reserves there are far greater than initially estimated.
Maybe theese guys will guess right, who knows. But it’s still a guess.
Note also that we are sitting on an ocean of natural gas. That also may serve as a backstop to runaway oil prices.
Uuuuuhhhhh… you said “ocean of natural gas.”
hahahahahaha
(I’ve been around my middle schooler too long.)
Well, this is a short-term prediction. So at least we’ll know by May whether they were correct or not!
I hope they are right, because I (a) don’t drive much at all, and (b) own Exxon stock. If drivers want to give me their money, I am happy to take it.
More commuters in 2008 realized some situations – like gas prices – are out of their control, but other situations – like choosing how to get to and from work – are totally in their control. Before gas prices break the $4 mark again, consider carpooling, riding transit, vanpooling, and even walking or biking to work; especially since Decatur was ranked the “Most Walkable City” in Georgia by Walkscore.com.
Metro Atlanta commuters who drive alone spend almost $500/month just to get to work, so why not kick off the New Year with a change in your commute? Switch from driving alone and you may not even blink twice at high gas prices.
The Clean Air Campaign can help you improve your commute by helping you: find a carpool partner, get a Guaranteed Ride Home, locate transit providers and/or start a telework program at your office.
More than 1,600 Georgia employers and 90,000 commuters have taken part in Clean Air Campaign programs. We’re here to help! Visit us at http://www.cleanaircampaign.org.
Wow. That read just a little too much like a press release for my taste.
Nre what to think of the fact that the Clean Air Campaign will reward you for carpooling by . . . giving you a gas card.
Ugh. I meant “not sure what to think” as opposed to “Nre.”
What if….. President Al Gore on September 12th, 2001, announced that the US was going to begin to stem the flow of petro-dollars to the Mid-east through an annual increase of a 50 cent gas tax for 5 years that would be used to fund mass transit, alternative energy and energy conservation?
well
gas is such a small part of having or driving a car really
add in the massive subsidies, then….
3, 4 5 dollars – so what
wle
DM’s questions regarding why $3 gas isn’t getting covered in the news these days is an interesting one. Not playing the ‘liberal media’ card here, but it does seem odd that it is getting so little ink.
When it last hit $3 we were in the middle of Bush’s so-called “war for oil”, wheras today we are in the middle of Obama’s…well, I don’t really know what we could call it, but it doesn’t easily fit a preconcieved narrative (Texas oilman becomes president –> Gas prices go up –> must be a connection, right?). This time around it doesn’t make a simple story (nevermind that it really wasn’t so simple last time either), so we see the high prices, think “this doesn’t make much sense”, shrug our shoulders and move on.