Comments on: Is DeVry Property a Potential Burden or Cash Cow?

By: David

David — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 14:19:47 +0000

The only thing that’s more overbuilt than SFD in Atlanta at the moment are condos and townhomes.

In addition I really don’t think the financing is there at the moment. 52 banks and counting have been taken over by the FDIC this year. Most of them were of the developer piggy bank variety.

So the money side of this will be problematic for the foreseeable future.

Any dev with cash right now could hammerlock the city for anything it wants, zoning variances, infrastructure improvements, you name it.

But I really think it’s going to be a long time before any project of this size get built in Atlanta without government money.

By: Brad Steel

Brad Steel — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 21:50:55 +0000

Dekalb County’s land use controls, including zoning, are horrible for communities and great for developers. Those of Decatur are much more balanced and IMHO produce some of the best results in the metro area.

Currently, in the medium term and if zoning allows, the most marketable use of the site is similar to other nearby developments – a big surfaced-parked apartment complex. Traffic patterns won’t support retail and other types of lower density housing won’t produce the returns of a big apartment property.

By: Man on the Moon

Man on the Moon — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 16:13:58 +0000

I agree with Scott. If we’re going to speculate potential outcomes, they do need to at least appear as probable. I did read the trends, Scott, and I’m lovin’ it.

I have a habit of only agreeing with commentors and not creating my own topic of discussion. Decatur Metro, what do you think? Is DeVry Property a potential Burden or Cash Cow?

-Man on the Moon

By: Pete

Pete — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 02:36:57 +0000

Sorry, I meant to say in respone to Steve that I’ve never had the opportunity to elect Floyd “mayor” or city commissioner or whatever.

By: Pete

Pete — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 02:35:11 +0000

No, actually, Brad, Mayor Floyd is elected by voters in the north side of the city and is “elected” Mayor by the votes of the city commission. I’ve never had the opportunity to vote for or against Bill Floyd and certainly have not had the opportunity to elect Peggy.

By: Scott

Scott — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 22:34:04 +0000

If we’re going to speculate potential outcomes, they need to at least be plausible. Why are we even suggesting that some developer would buy land that’s priced/valued on the basis of its being entitled for 500+ units, then petition the city to change it to single family residential, thereby cutting its potential returns by up to 80 or more percent?

Add to that that a number of sources now say the U.S. has sufficient single family homes *already built* to meet market demand for such homes until 2030.

Read the trends. Between the Baby Boom (now retiring) and the Echo Boom (now young, single and lovin’ it), there will be unprecedented increases in demand for compact and walkable, transit-friendly, low maintenance urban living.

As many here know, I’m all for doing the forecasts. But the forecasts need to based in reality. I agree with Brad; to just throw out “possible scenarios” that have no basis in the business of real estate development or any relationship to where market trends are going is just fear mongering.

Establish plausible scenarios, agree on comparable factors, and do the math. I gots no problem with that.

By: Decatur Metro

Decatur Metro — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 21:21:33 +0000

I said “apparently overly rosy”, meaning I don’t necessarily buy the classification.

I didn’t think either Sycamore Ridge or Winn Way classify as townhomes. Guess we need clarification on what a detached townhouse is. And I guess you don’t buy that the city has the power to reject a single-use neighborhood like Amanda said above, based on the city’s conditional approval of a site plan.

By: Judd Owen

Judd Owen — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 20:22:25 +0000

How can the City’s estimate be both overly rosy and most likely? Actually, I haven’t given an opinion on what’s most likely nor do I have any statistics to offer yet, so mine can’t be overly wary. I don’t know what’s most likely. I do know that if someone wanted to buy 22 acres for $5.5M and sell 1/3 acre lots for 300+, they’d make a whole lot of money. I know commercial real estate is in the tank and residential in Decatur is doing, not great, but better than most. I know developers are looking for anything that might move right now, and I know that the MU ordinance allows for family-oriented housing. Do I say that’s most likely? No, but it seems plausible and not a huge stretch. If you want an example of what I’d guess is meant by detached townhouses, look across Winn Way at Sycamore Ridge. Or Village Walk. It needn’t be ALL that sort of thing to begin affecting the math. They were purposely included in the MU ordinance so they have to be considered.

As for the comps, I don’t know any more than anyone else what they’ll show once they’re in. They might show wins down the line for CSD for all I know. For what it’s worth, Pat and I consulted with Amanda on what would be suitable comps, so we’re not trying to slant the results — though I’m sure we’ll be discussing which ones are suitable and which ones aren’t after they’re in. But, hey … more data is a good thing.